Whats Smarter? | USHandicap Classic

jschauer Schauer Professional Champion
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522 yard par 5 You hit your drive 280-285, looking at 237-242 to the green. ***Chances Hitting 3 Wood*** You have a 25% chance of hitting the green in two. You have a 50% chance of hitting near or next to the green You have a 25% chance of completely BLOWING it. Ei; Duff,Slice into the woods, fat shot that rolls 36 feet ect. ***Whats Smarter?******* Given those percentages and your ability with a little course management, what would you do? A. - Go for the Green, at the very least your right next to it and can chip close for a birdie. B. - Layup / Hit your longest club the closest to the green (in the fairway) to give yourself a good chance at sticking it close for a birdie. C. - Hit a layup to your most comfortable yardage if you want to flag seek for a GIR and play for a par at the very least. ************************************************************** My two thoughts are (A) and (C) ;even though I like to be a showoff most of the time with my league buddies; I always find myself in lots of trouble going with option (A). It's just way to hard to go with option (C) because basically I'd be laying up with a gap wedge (115 yrds) then hitting to the green with a gap wedge. (115yrds) I feel stupid doing that which is why I wanna know (what's smarter?)?
LyinLewis Legend
# 1 6/11/2013 1:41:17 PM
I personally don't have a go to distance. I believe the closer I am the best chances I have to get a birdie, but I really like hitting touch pitch shots. To answer your question I think all are valid depending on my confidence in the club needed. If I am playing well I believe I would go for the green. Why? Because getting on gives me an eagle opportunity and if I am around the green it all but guarantees a birdie. As for hitting it into trouble, other than OB or water I would not care. If I get into trouble I would lean on my short game hopefully to salvage par. I have several par 5's in this area where I would hit the lay-up because the trouble is sometimes not worth the reward.
Mark Simmons Legend
# 2 6/11/2013 2:41:35 PM
Even though you are defining the probability of outcomes there are still a lot of variables that influence the answer. - If you are leading by two late in the game you don't want to take chances (C) is your only choice - If you are behind by one and this is the last reasonable hole to make birdie or better, you are more likely to go with (A) UNLESS: You've got an awesome wedge game and know if you layup you can knock it close for birdie, then you choose (B); have an awesome chip and pitch game so that you'd be even more eager to go with (A); or have an iron that you absolutely always hit stiff, then you go with (C) to the ideal yardage for that iron. There are many other variables that could influence the answer. Off the top of my head: receptivity of the greens, the type and location of trouble around the greens, wind, lie of the ball, how well you've hit the 3-wood today, location and accessibility of the pin...
lpj0 Professional Champion
# 3 6/11/2013 5:41:37 PM
Given you probabilities (which seem close to my game - except drive is probably more like 260) and that this is a normal round... I normally go with B. It works OK. However, last week I played an entire round with option C. That was one of my best rounds in a while. So, C is my plan. That said, if I sense I have a good chance with low danger, then A. I have realized that B is the worst option for me. This is just my opinion from recent observations in my game. Subject to change on a whim ;-) So, in summary C unless A is more probable...
njgolfer Legend
# 4 6/11/2013 6:32:53 PM
Lay up to about 80 yards leaving me a dead hand sand wedge to the pin.
Don Freeman Professional Champion
# 5 6/11/2013 6:47:00 PM
Though the distances are different for me, here is what I do on par 5's: If I can get there with a 4 iron or 5 wood, I usually go for it. I hit both of those clubs fairly straight and my distances are consistent with each. Having said that, if it is windy, or the green is narrow and maybe elevated, or really tightly surrounded by traps, I change my philosophy. I make a decision asking myself this question based on me missing the green. Which miss would be the best for me? How close can I get it to the pin from the trap? From the bottom of the hill pitching up short sided? Or from the front of the green with a good look at the pin and the choice to pitch it all the way, or chip and run? Then I make my club selection. Usually in conditions I just described, I choose to play it just short of the front of the green. I'm talking about 10 yards. No more.
Dandy Professional Champion
# 6 6/11/2013 7:44:58 PM
I'm with Connor. If there's no penalty strokes up by the green, I'll fire away 100% of the time.
RandallTex Professional Champion
# 7 6/11/2013 7:46:20 PM
These same questions actually apply to me a few times per round on par 4's, when my drive isn't the greatest. If my chances of getting it on the green are similar to what you describe (like if I'm in the rough, or have hit some chunky drive in the fairway), I think about if laying up is the best option and if so, lay up to where. I think for par 4's it's even harder to lay up, because it's a damn par 4! Real men are on in two.
Pappy82nd Professional Champion
# 8 6/11/2013 9:42:17 PM
B is the best for me in most situations, up close to the green (within 50 yards) and I will flop it on or chip it on near the hole for a birdie most times. I get in trouble if I use A and leaving it out too far is iffy also unless it is right at 100 or 115 yards then I am dead on the pin with my gap wedge or my sand wedge. I love chipping though so B for me. a 7 iron is great for a 50 yard chip with good roll out. Some might call it a pitch, but I use a chipping swing not a pitch swing so it is chip for me.
armygrunt47 Professional Champion
# 9 6/11/2013 10:19:15 PM
Depends on the risks around the green for me but I usually lean on A if it is wide open, I am hitting thet ball well or I am trailing in my match. I would lean more to C if there was too much hazard around the green, I am playing conservatively or strriking the ball poorly. It is all situational.
Robert Premeaux Jr. Professional Champion
# 10 6/11/2013 10:32:43 PM
it depends mostly on the lie if the ball is sitting up, from 245 or in, the only thing that would keep me from going for the green would be a forced carry to the green if the lie is in any way awkward, i'd be looking to lay up (or lay back) more and more. the lie generally answers these kinds of questions for me.
Mark Simmons Legend
# 11 6/12/2013 12:53:04 AM
So let's assume I'm only interested in doing what gives me the best score in this situation over the long haul and further let's assume the green is fairly open. If I had a 25% or better chance to put it on the green, I'm going for it. That wouldn't be the case if we were 240 yards out unless it was down hill, down wind. So if we take my normal distances and say this one is unreachable, I'll lay up to 100-120 yards from the pin and aim to place it at the ideal angle to attack the flag.
BUCKNUT Legend
# 12 6/12/2013 6:26:00 AM
Depends on the lie, and trouble ahead. If it's just a sand bunker with a good lie I go at it. It it's water, O.B., or some lie on a hard clay patch or thick as Merion rough I will try to get as close to a 80 yard shot as possible.
jschauer Schauer Professional Champion
# 13 6/12/2013 9:25:05 AM
These same questions actually apply to me a few times per round on par 4's, when my drive isn't the greatest. If my chances of getting it on the green are similar to what you describe (like if I'm in the rough, or have hit some chunky drive in the fairway), I think about if laying up is the best option and if so, lay up to where. I think for par 4's it's even harder to lay up, because it's a damn par 4! Real men are on in two. I really like this response because I've had countless times where I screwed up my drive and duffed it to the tip of the beginning fairway and had to ask myself "should I try to go for the green?" or lay up to a place where you can chip close and try to make par?. That's a really tough question to ask yourself because like you said, Real men get on in two. it SUCKS when you're in that position.
Robert Premeaux Jr. Professional Champion
# 14 6/12/2013 9:16:11 PM
These same questions actually apply to me a few times per round on par 4's, when my drive isn't the greatest. If my chances of getting it on the green are similar to what you describe (like if I'm in the rough, or have hit some chunky drive in the fairway), I think about if laying up is the best option and if so, lay up to where. I think for par 4's it's even harder to lay up, because it's a damn par 4! Real men are on in two. play a game with yourself and pretend you have 0% testosterone for one round. play the par-5s as three-shot holes and if you duff a ball or get into trouble, don't go for the whole enchilada to try to make up for the mistake but punch out, lay back and take your medicine. my bet is if you've got any kind of short game you'll learn on your own that doing the smart thing leads to pars, bogeys and doubles instead of triples, quads and others. from that point, it's all up to you. do you want to go for it and lose the u.s. open like go-for-broke mickelson? or do you want to take your medicine, punch out/lay up and give yourself some kind of putt for par like a nicklaus type?
Ian Liggett Amateur
# 15 6/13/2013 10:28:58 AM
I would submit that your choice should have been made prior to hitting your tee shot. If you break out the driver, chances are good that if you're in range you'll be going for the green in two. If you choose to play it as a three shot hole, why hit the driver off the tee? It sounds like two 5 irons will get you pretty close to your 115 yard gap wedge. Or 3 wood/8 iron. Or whatever combination works with your particular distances. Of course, that's based on the assumption that your driver is less reliable than your shorter clubs. If your driver's the best club in your bag and finds the fairway every time, then forget everything I just said. And give me a lesson or two when you get a chance...

Professional Champion

123 Views 18 Replies 2 Likes

522 yard par 5

You hit your drive 280-285, looking at 237-242 to the green.

*****Chances Hitting 3 Wood*******

You have a 25% chance of hitting the green in two.

You have a 50% chance of hitting near or next to the green

You have a 25% chance of completely BLOWING it. Ei; Duff,Slice into the woods, fat shot that rolls 36 feet ect.

*******Whats Smarter?***********

Given those percentages and your ability with a little course management, what would you do?

A. - Go for the Green, at the very least your right next to it and can chip close for a birdie.

B. - Layup / Hit your longest club the closest to the green (in the fairway) to give yourself a good chance at sticking it close for a birdie.

C. - Hit a layup to your most comfortable yardage if you want to flag seek for a GIR and play for a par at the very least.

****************************************************************
My two thoughts are (A) and (C) ;even though I like to be a showoff most of the time with my league buddies; I always find myself in lots of trouble going with option (A).

It's just way to hard to go with option (C) because basically I'd be laying up with a gap wedge (115 yrds) then hitting to the green with a gap wedge. (115yrds)

I feel stupid doing that which is why I wanna know (what's smarter?)?

LyinLewis

Legend

# 1 6/11/2013 1:41:17 PM

I personally don't have a go to distance. I believe the closer I am the best chances I have to get a birdie, but I really like hitting touch pitch shots.

To answer your question I think all are valid depending on my confidence in the club needed. If I am playing well I believe I would go for the green. Why? Because getting on gives me an eagle opportunity and if I am around the green it all but guarantees a birdie. As for hitting it into trouble, other than OB or water I would not care. If I get into trouble I would lean on my short game hopefully to salvage par.

I have several par 5's in this area where I would hit the lay-up because the trouble is sometimes not worth the reward.

Mark Simmons

Legend

# 2 6/11/2013 2:41:35 PM

Even though you are defining the probability of outcomes there are still a lot of variables that influence the answer.

- If you are leading by two late in the game you don't want to take chances (C) is your only choice

- If you are behind by one and this is the last reasonable hole to make birdie or better, you are more likely to go with (A) UNLESS: You've got an awesome wedge game and know if you layup you can knock it close for birdie, then you choose (B); have an awesome chip and pitch game so that you'd be even more eager to go with (A); or have an iron that you absolutely always hit stiff, then you go with (C) to the ideal yardage for that iron.

There are many other variables that could influence the answer. Off the top of my head: receptivity of the greens, the type and location of trouble around the greens, wind, lie of the ball, how well you've hit the 3-wood today, location and accessibility of the pin...

lpj0

Professional Champion

# 3 6/11/2013 5:41:37 PM

Given you probabilities (which seem close to my game - except drive is probably more like 260) and that this is a normal round...

I normally go with B. It works OK. However, last week I played an entire round with option C. That was one of my best rounds in a while. So, C is my plan. That said, if I sense I have a good chance with low danger, then A. I have realized that B is the worst option for me.

This is just my opinion from recent observations in my game. Subject to change on a whim ;-) So, in summary C unless A is more probable...

njgolfer

Legend

# 4 6/11/2013 6:32:53 PM

Lay up to about 80 yards leaving me a dead hand sand wedge to the pin.

Don Freeman

Professional Champion

# 5 6/11/2013 6:47:00 PM

Though the distances are different for me, here is what I do on par 5's:

If I can get there with a 4 iron or 5 wood, I usually go for it. I hit both of those clubs fairly straight and my distances are consistent with each. Having said that, if it is windy, or the green is narrow and maybe elevated, or really tightly surrounded by traps, I change my philosophy. I make a decision asking myself this question based on me missing the green. Which miss would be the best for me? How close can I get it to the pin from the trap? From the bottom of the hill pitching up short sided? Or from the front of the green with a good look at the pin and the choice to pitch it all the way, or chip and run? Then I make my club selection. Usually in conditions I just described, I choose to play it just short of the front of the green. I'm talking about 10 yards. No more.

Dandy

Professional Champion

# 6 6/11/2013 7:44:58 PM

I'm with Connor. If there's no penalty strokes up by the green, I'll fire away 100% of the time.

RandallTex

Professional Champion

# 7 6/11/2013 7:46:20 PM

These same questions actually apply to me a few times per round on par 4's, when my drive isn't the greatest. If my chances of getting it on the green are similar to what you describe (like if I'm in the rough, or have hit some chunky drive in the fairway), I think about if laying up is the best option and if so, lay up to where. I think for par 4's it's even harder to lay up, because it's a damn par 4! Real men are on in two.

Pappy82nd

Professional Champion

# 8 6/11/2013 9:42:17 PM

B is the best for me in most situations, up close to the green (within 50 yards) and I will flop it on or chip it on near the hole for a birdie most times. I get in trouble if I use A and leaving it out too far is iffy also unless it is right at 100 or 115 yards then I am dead on the pin with my gap wedge or my sand wedge. I love chipping though so B for me. a 7 iron is great for a 50 yard chip with good roll out. Some might call it a pitch, but I use a chipping swing not a pitch swing so it is chip for me.

armygrunt47

Professional Champion

# 9 6/11/2013 10:19:15 PM

Depends on the risks around the green for me but I usually lean on A if it is wide open, I am hitting thet ball well or I am trailing in my match. I would lean more to C if there was too much hazard around the green, I am playing conservatively or strriking the ball poorly. It is all situational.

Robert Premeaux Jr.

Professional Champion

# 10 6/11/2013 10:32:43 PM

it depends mostly on the lie

if the ball is sitting up, from 245 or in, the only thing that would keep me from going for the green would be a forced carry to the green

if the lie is in any way awkward, i'd be looking to lay up (or lay back) more and more.

the lie generally answers these kinds of questions for me.

Mark Simmons

Legend

# 11 6/12/2013 12:53:04 AM

So let's assume I'm only interested in doing what gives me the best score in this situation over the long haul and further let's assume the green is fairly open.

If I had a 25% or better chance to put it on the green, I'm going for it. That wouldn't be the case if we were 240 yards out unless it was down hill, down wind. So if we take my normal distances and say this one is unreachable, I'll lay up to 100-120 yards from the pin and aim to place it at the ideal angle to attack the flag.

BUCKNUT

Legend

# 12 6/12/2013 6:26:00 AM

Depends on the lie, and trouble ahead. If it's just a sand bunker with a good lie I go at it. It it's water, O.B., or some lie on a hard clay patch or thick as Merion rough I will try to get as close to a 80 yard shot as possible.

jschauer Schauer

Professional Champion

# 13 6/12/2013 9:25:05 AM

These same questions actually apply to me a few times per round on par 4's, when my drive isn't the greatest. If my chances of getting it on the green are similar to what you describe (like if I'm in the rough, or have hit some chunky drive in the fairway), I think about if laying up is the best option and if so, lay up to where. I think for par 4's it's even harder to lay up, because it's a damn par 4! Real men are on in two.

I really like this response because I've had countless times where I screwed up my drive and duffed it to the tip of the beginning fairway and had to ask myself "should I try to go for the green?" or lay up to a place where you can chip close and try to make par?.

That's a really tough question to ask yourself because like you said, Real men get on in two. it SUCKS when you're in that position.

Robert Premeaux Jr.

Professional Champion

# 14 6/12/2013 9:16:11 PM

These same questions actually apply to me a few times per round on par 4's, when my drive isn't the greatest. If my chances of getting it on the green are similar to what you describe (like if I'm in the rough, or have hit some chunky drive in the fairway), I think about if laying up is the best option and if so, lay up to where. I think for par 4's it's even harder to lay up, because it's a damn par 4! Real men are on in two.

play a game with yourself and pretend you have 0% testosterone for one round. play the par-5s as three-shot holes and if you duff a ball or get into trouble, don't go for the whole enchilada to try to make up for the mistake but punch out, lay back and take your medicine.

my bet is if you've got any kind of short game you'll learn on your own that doing the smart thing leads to pars, bogeys and doubles instead of triples, quads and others.

from that point, it's all up to you. do you want to go for it and lose the u.s. open like go-for-broke mickelson? or do you want to take your medicine, punch out/lay up and give yourself some kind of putt for par like a nicklaus type?

Ian Liggett

Amateur

# 15 6/13/2013 10:28:58 AM

I would submit that your choice should have been made prior to hitting your tee shot. If you break out the driver, chances are good that if you're in range you'll be going for the green in two. If you choose to play it as a three shot hole, why hit the driver off the tee? It sounds like two 5 irons will get you pretty close to your 115 yard gap wedge. Or 3 wood/8 iron. Or whatever combination works with your particular distances.

Of course, that's based on the assumption that your driver is less reliable than your shorter clubs. If your driver's the best club in your bag and finds the fairway every time, then forget everything I just said. And give me a lesson or two when you get a chance...

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