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Beating the Odds: Exceptional Tournament Scores
Updated: 10/25/2010 11:53:53 AM

The table below, taken from the USGA Handicap System manual, shows that it’s highly unlikely that a player will shoot more than three strokes below his Handicap Index in a given round. If the same player does it on multiple occasions in a short span, he’s either defying the laws of probability or a sandbagger. 

Exceptional Tournament Scores Probability Table
Net Differential 0-5 6-12 13-21 22-30 31-up
0 5:1 5:1 6:1 5:1 5:1
-1 10:1 10:1 10:1 8:1 7:1
-2 23:1 22:1 21:1 13:1 10:1
-3 57:1 51:1 43:1 23:1 15:1
-4 151:1 121:1 87:1 40:1 22:1
-5 379:1 276:1 174:1 72:1 35:1
-6 790:1 536:1 323:1 130:1 60:1
-7 2349:1 1200:1 552:1 229:1 101:1
-8 20111:1 4467:1 1138:1 382:1 185:1
-9 48219:1 27877:1 3577:1 695:1 359:1
-10 125000:1 84300:1 37000:1 1650:1 874:1

The values in the table are the odds of shooting a net differential equal or better than the number in the left column. Net differential reflects how many strokes lower than his Index a player shot.


For example, a player with a Handicap Index of 10.5 shoots a 74 from a set of tees with a course rating of 71.2 and a Slope rating of 126. His handicap differential is 2.5, taking the Slope rating into account (74 – 71.2 = 2.8 x 113/126). That gives him a net differential of -8.0. From the chart, the odds of this occurring are 4,467 to 1.

Higher-handicap players have a greater chance of shooting an exceptional round because score variability rises with handicaps. That’s why mid- to highhandicappers often walk off with the title in a large-field net event. Low handicappers can be consoled by the fact that their consistency gives them the edge in head-to-head play and multiple-round tournaments.

Rule 10-3: Reduction of Handicap based on Exceptional Tournament Scores

You can read more about rule 10-3 from the USGA Handicap Manual here.  In short, these steps are followed to determine if a Handicap Index needs a reduction:

1: Count the eligible tournament scores.  If there are 2 or more, continue.
2: Select the two lowest differentials from the eligible tournament scores, continue.
3: Subtract the 2nd lowest differential from the Handicap Index.  If the result is 3.0+, continue.
4: Average the 2 best differentials, and subtract the result from the Handicap Index, then round to the nearest tenth.
5: Using the result in step 4 and the number of eligible T-Scores, look up the reduction in the table below.

Handicap Reduction Table 


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Comments (46)

firecapt60 7/5/2011 9:54:07 PM
Nice breakdown of info.

albatrossteel 3/15/2011 9:34:34 AM
Current Handicap trend list 9.0. Played 34 tournaments with lowest two average at .5. Reduction should be a 4.2 current leaving balance handicap at 4.8. Not 4.2, Correct?

albatrossteel 1/27/2011 6:05:48 AM
October 2 my handicap trend was a 6.3. Two tournament scores average to .8. Difference of 5.5. You took 8.

albatrossteel 11/19/2010 11:44:48 AM
The site is not consistent. There are extreme ranges being ignored. They are well in the criterria. What's the deal?

albatrossteel 11/16/2010 5:36:50 PM
Finding my rhythm doesn't seem worth the handicap drop. Its gone and I'm getting beat to death. Double check my recent decrease for me please.

GreenReader 11/2/2010 8:37:23 AM
The Handicap Index uses the best 10 differentials of the last 20 rounds, not excluding tournament rounds. You can read the entire rule here: http://www.usga.org/Rule-Books../

albatrossteel 11/2/2010 7:29:38 AM
Please respond. Its a mental game and this needs resolve.

albatrossteel 11/1/2010 10:29:06 AM
Makes sense, however, the tournament scores used to reduce the handicap should be excluded from the original calculation to determine your original handicap. In my case example. Shown as an 8.4 with my low tournament score. Should be a 9.3 with that score eliminated and the next low applied. Then reduce the 4.7 to balance my R handicap at 4.6. Listed at 3.8R. Correct?

albatrossteel 11/1/2010 7:34:18 AM
Discriminatory. I agree with the rule but complete history of tournaments should be accounted. I shot 95 in my last

gsollars 8/17/2010 8:48:51 AM
So, I shot the lowest round I have shot in a long time, a 75 at Squaw Valley (72.2, 127) in Granbury, Texas. I do shoot 76, 77, 78 and 79's so a 75 is not that unusual, I thought (you can look at my scores here on Golfq.com). But I also post a lot of scores in the low to mid-80's and the odd 90 but that's just the way I play. Some days I just don't play well. So going thru the math: my index is 6.4, 75 - 72.2 = 2.8, now 2.8 x 113/127 = 2.49, say 2.5. If I understand correctly, now: 2.5 - 6.4 = -3.9. Call that -3.9 a 4 and the table says the odds of me shooting a 75 are about 121 to 1. That seems like sort of long odds but it is relatively higher up on the table so would someone conclude that I cheated? Actually, I know I didn't and that's why I would prefer to play in tournaments face to face so that my opponents can see my shots and there should be no issue of cheating.

I think that the purpose of the table is to identify players that post rounds that are impossible to believe. Years ago the Society of Petroleum Engineers used to play their annual tournament as an individual stroke play event. They accepted whatever a player wrote down as a handicap as legitimate. At the time I was about a 20+ handicap. We played the tournament at the old Woodlands East Course. That was the course that the Houston Open was moved to when they moved away from the private North and West courses. If you ever played the East Course back then you might remember that it was a beautiful course but had rough that was absolutely brutal. It was so difficult and brutal that the pros complained bitterly the first year the tournament was moved there. The course was set up very tough for them but it seemed normal to me. Anyway, I had a later tee time and finished very late in the day and most of the scores had been posted. I was in the like the fifth flight and shot a score that wasn't awful but it was somewhere in the 90's. It was a very difficult day and I was dead tired w

gsollars 8/17/2010 8:48:51 AM
So, I shot the lowest round I have shot in a long time, a 75 at Squaw Valley (72.2, 127) in Granbury, Texas. I do shoot 76, 77, 78 and 79's so a 75 is not that unusual, I thought (you can look at my scores here on Golfq.com). But I also post a lot of scores in the low to mid-80's and the odd 90 but that's just the way I play. Some days I just don't play well. So going thru the math: my index is 6.4, 75 - 72.2 = 2.8, now 2.8 x 113/127 = 2.49, say 2.5. If I understand correctly, now: 2.5 - 6.4 = -3.9. Call that -3.9 a 4 and the table says the odds of me shooting a 75 are about 121 to 1. That seems like sort of long odds but it is relatively higher up on the table so would someone conclude that I cheated? Actually, I know I didn't and that's why I would prefer to play in tournaments face to face so that my opponents can see my shots and there should be no issue of cheating.

I think that the purpose of the table is to identify players that post rounds that are impossible to belihen I was done. I stopped to look at the posted scores and the guy that won my flight shot something like even par with a 27 handicap. There was no way on God's Green Earth that a 27 could shoot anywhere near par on that course. The guy had the gall to show up and collect his winnings. But the tournament was never an individual stroke play event again. After that year the tournament became a scramble tournament. They still don't get honest play but at least it's easier to take when a foursome shoots a net 50 because there are usually lots of scores in the 50's. Anyway, I suspect that the guy that shot 72 with a 27 handicap would have calculated odds somewhere in the neighborhood of tens of thousandds to one. The actual calculation appears like it would be off the table.

BigBreakB 7/26/2010 10:28:08 AM
I get what everone is saying, and in fact, before "GreenReader" posted this blog, I already looked up the USGA probabilities. I found the same chart. But I was thinking, I'm a 11.4 HC, but on my scoring record is a 74 (non-tournament). For the last six months, Ive been taking lessons and practicing daily. I just shot an 81, thats (-0.7) differential. I was pumped to shot an 81. However I know that 70s are just around the corner. Maybe the USGA can "weight" tournament rounds heavy on the handicap system. It reflects the stress of a tournment and give a better read of the players potential in a tournament? Any thoughts?

Golfandsoccer 7/26/2010 9:55:44 AM
From what I understand you are not supposed to simply post your best score. Rather, you are supposed to decide that you are playing a tournament round before you start to play. (I explain that I'm posting the score in a tourney to my playing partners so they know what's going on.) Then you post the actual score for the tourney for that round. Could Stracka admins please clarify for the masses what is expected on this point. BTW for the record, peoples handicaps change both up and down for many reasons. Injuries - extra practice - lessons (help or hurt???) can make a big difference in ones game. In the last year I went from a 14 to an 18 when (after an injury) I somehow lost the ability to hit my irons. I'm sure I'll get it back and when I do I expect to shoot in the mid 80's very quickly. In the meanwhile, I had to report a 96 on a relatively easy course for my last v-tourney round.

Sylla 7/26/2010 7:14:48 AM
This table is about exceptional scores *in a tournament*. Now the Stracka tournament is a bit different, because you simply post your best score toward the tournament (if i'm not mistaken). So I guess that you'll see lower scores because people simply post their best score for that period.

daveinvatx 7/25/2010 9:19:53 PM
Yes, I seriously shot a 76. I had a great day, I was strong off the tee, lots of GIRs and putted solid. I played the white tees and that definitely helped me have a good day. I used to play a lot of golf and I have been away from the game for a couple of years. This summer I have found my love for the game again and I have been playing a ton. My hard work finally pays off with a great day at the course and I am rewarded by being called a cheater? A serious accusation against my character. I would not want to win a trip to Pebble if I cheated... why cheat myself and the game of golf? If I want to play Pebble I will just make a tee time and pay the green fees. I am an avid golfer, I follow the rules of golf to the best of my knowledge and I am really disappointed to be accused of cheating by others in this forum. My previous low round was a 78 and I am really excited about shooting a 76... thanks for sapping some of my enthusiasm after I shot a career low.
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